Evaluating the Performance of Tehran’s Sixth Municipal Management Period against Strategic Megatrends: A Futures-Studies Analysis

This study systematically identifies the strategic megatrends shaping urban management over the 2020–2040 horizon and provides an evidence-based evaluation of Tehran's sixth municipal management period (2021–2025) in confronting them. Applied in orientation and pragmatist in philosophy, the research employs a mixed-methods design with a sequential explanatory strategy. Twelve megatrends were first identified through a PRISMA-2020 systematic literature review across Web of Science, Scopus and ScienceDirect (about 350 records screened to 34 final sources) and a READ-approach analysis of major international documents; Tehran's performance was then assessed using an Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA) matrix and a comparative analysis of six leading metropolises—Singapore, Copenhagen, Seoul, Barcelona, Medellín and Curitiba. The findings show that seven megatrends fall within the critical "concentrate here" quadrant, revealing the largest strategic gaps—chronic air pollution, north–south inequality, the housing-affordability crisis and weak seismic retrofitting—while only rail and public-transport infrastructure receives a positive assessment. Tehran thus stands between reactive, short-term management and a transition toward forward-looking strategic governance, with the move to the seventh municipal period offering a rare window for fundamental reorientation.