Analyzing the Vote Winning Patterns of Tehran Representatives in Iran’s Twelfth Parliament Based on Newman’s Political Marketing Model

This study examines the voting pattern of Tehran representatives in Iran’s Twelfth Parliamentary Elections, focusing on the role of individual factors, personal branding, and campaign strategies within a list-based electoral system. Drawing on Newman’s political marketing framework, it explores how voters balance individual candidate evaluations with loyalty to electoral lists, particularly in a context of declining turnout and vote fragmentation.



The research employs a qualitative case study design. Data were collected through document analysis and semi-structured interviews with candidates, campaign activists, and political analysts, and analyzed using three-stage thematic analysis.



Findings suggest that the “individual–list” model best explains electoral behavior in Tehran: although voters align with electoral lists, their final choices depend on individual candidate assessments, with preferential voting playing a decisive role. Personalized campaigns, engagement with opinion leaders, continuous reputation-building, and negative campaigning were identified as key factors of success.



Overall, the study highlights the need to integrate individual and collective strategies in Tehran’s electoral competition and demonstrates the explanatory value of Newman’s framework in the Iranian context.